Charging Infrastructure Beyond 2025/2030: Scenarios for Market Ramp-Up

Summary – Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in human history. Electrifying motorized individual transport in the mobility sector plays a key role in achieving climate goals. This transition is already well underway in Germany and globally, leading to what is likely the largest transformation in transport since the introduction of the internal combustion engine.

To accommodate the increasing number of electric passenger cars (E-Pkw), a widespread, demand-oriented, and user-friendly charging infrastructure is required. This infrastructure must not be built parallel to the market ramp-up of E-Pkw but must be developed in advance to provide drivers with the reliability needed to transition. Targeted expansion of the charging infrastructure requires methodologically sound demand planning.

In 2020, the National Centre for Charging Infrastructure (Leitstelle), under the umbrella of NOW GmbH, published the study “Charging Infrastructure Beyond 2025/2030: Scenarios for Market Ramp-Up”, prepared by the Reiner Lemoine Institute (RLI) on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV). The focus of the study was on charging needs in public spaces.

The development in electromobility and charging infrastructure remains highly dynamic. Therefore, the original study was designed to allow for an update, which has been implemented in the current version. The updated study incorporates today’s significantly better data, for instance, regarding the future availability of non-public charging infrastructure, as well as greater knowledge of the complex interrelations in the field of charging infrastructure. This enabled meaningful expansions of the simulation model.

In addition to updating and optimizing the underlying data, adjustments and extensions related to driving and charging behavior were made without deviating significantly from the character of the previous study. Insights from this updated study are not only an important basis for private sector decision-making but also play a crucial role in electricity grid expansion, the development of local master plans in counties and municipalities, and the regional monitoring of the German federal government’s nationwide expansion.

The basis for the study’s update includes real data on mobility behavior in Germany. The charging needs for seven different use cases (so-called charging use cases) were analyzed. To better assess the effects of certain developments, a reference scenario and four additional scenarios were defined and examined. This approach accounts for the fact that the actual demand for charging infrastructure in Germany depends on many factors whose developments cannot be predicted with certainty.

The central results of the study cover various aspects of the demand for charging infrastructure in Germany. In addition to the number of required charging points, the installed charging capacity and the amount of energy delivered are core elements of the analysis. The study determined a demand for between 380,000 and 680,000 publicly accessible charging points by 2030. The required installed charging capacity of these points is expected to range between 23.3 GW and 32.4 GW, depending on the scenario. The total amount of electricity delivered to E-Pkw is estimated at 37.8 TWh, with publicly accessible charging infrastructure supplying between 36% and 50% of this energy, depending on the scenario.

The results highlight the significant impact of non-public charging infrastructure, both at home and at workplaces, on the need for public charging infrastructure. In 2030, there is an approximate 33% difference in the required public charging capacity between a scenario with high availability and one with low availability of non-public charging infrastructure. Regarding the number of charging points needed, high-power charging (HPC) infrastructure has a significant impact. A stronger expansion of such charging locations reduces the total demand for public charging points by about 26% compared to the reference scenario, although the required installed charging capacity remains the same.

Nevertheless, the study also underscores the important role of normal charging infrastructure, particularly in public streets. Increasing charging power in this specific use case has little impact on the overall number of required charging points, according to the sensitivity analysis. Normal charging remains a vital component of the overall charging system, especially considering the growing share of EV users without access to private charging infrastructure. The proportion of individuals relying on parking and overnight charging with relatively low power in public streets is expected to increase.

Impact of EV Characteristics
The characteristics of electric vehicles themselves also influence the need for public charging infrastructure. A 20% reduction in the average energy consumption of E-Pkw reduces the required number of publicly accessible charging points by approximately 15%.

The study’s findings clearly show that demand for publicly accessible charging infrastructure, from the perspective of users, will grow significantly in the coming years. The identified needs exceed the targets set by the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), which defines minimum goals for the development of public charging infrastructure at the European level. Beyond 2030, the rapid growth of E-Pkw is expected to continue, further increasing the demand for adequate public charging infrastructure.

Study