Study on Renewable Energy Off-Grid Components of NDCs and their Role for Climate Change Mitigation

The aim of the project is to develop strategies for the use of renewable energy that can support climate protection in developing countries. Therefore, it is necessary to create and strengthen local understanding of climate protection measures. In addition, the inclusion of off-grid components in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), in which the signatory states to the Paris Climate Change Convention commit themselves to elaborate national climate protection targets, should be achieved.

In this project, RLI will use a GIS analysis to analyze the size of the population without access to electricity. Since the majority of people without access to electricity live in remote and rural areas, the installation of off-grid systems with a high proportion of renewable energy sources is an option. Based on a spatial analysis method (GIS), different electrification scenarios for the target year 2030 will be simulated to determine the proportion of electrification options solar home systems, mini -grids and grid extensions for each of the investigated countries. The market potential and climate relevance of off-grid systems will then be quantified, with the latter playing a central role in the study. For all scenarios and electrification options, the savings of greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional power generation technologies will be determined and their impact on climate targets evaluated.

Moreover, RLI will summarize the hurdles in the off-grid area and develop solutions for them (blueprint). All important factors such as political measures, regulations, national and international financing possibilities, innovation, capacity development and data processing will be taken into account. From all these data, RLI finally creates a ranking list of the countries according to their funding needs, from which three countries will be selected, which will receive special support in the form of concrete project and financing ideas for the expansion of off-grid facilities. This can be provided by development banks, climate funds or targeted projects of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety.

Project Duration: October 2018 – December 2019

• Literature research
• GIS-based modelling of electrification scenarios
• Determination and assessment (Impact Assessment) of the potential for savings in greenhouse gases (Climate Change Mitigation Potentials) using methods of the Clean Development Mechanisms laid down in the Kyoto Protocol.
• Scenario development
• Implementation of workshops
• Carrying out exploratory trips
• Development of a sample solution (blueprint) for repeating hurdles in the off-grid area
• Development of concrete project and financing ideas
• Development of a web tool for visualizing the results