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29. January 2020

Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030 – scenarios for market expansion

Project period: August 2019 – Spring 2020

In the study "Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030 - scenarios for the market ramp-up", the nationwide demand for charging infrastructure, distributed over seven use cases and different performance classes, is determined. The seven use cases include private charging at home and at work as well as charging in (semi-)public places. In recent years, reference has been made to the relationship between e-vehicles and charging points determined by experts in order to determine the need for charging infrastructure (top-down methodology). Prominent examples can be found in the AFID (Alternative Fuel Directive) and other publications.

The study is a follow-up to the existing "AT Kearney Study" from 2013, develops it further and takes into account new technical developments, such as High Power Charging (HPC). By evaluating mobility in Germany (MiD 2017), the mobility behaviour of German households in different areas (urban, suburban and rural) is mapped and serves as a basis for determining the need for new charging infrastructure (bottom-up methodology). The preference of users to recharge at certain locations (use cases) is recorded in a user cascade and serves, among other parameters, as a link between the calculation of the need for new charging infrastructure and the expert opinions. To ensure that all relevant developments are taken into account in the study, a regular exchange with stakeholders is a fixed component. Multi-stakeholder dialogues will be held from the end of January to the end of February to provide information on user preferences, the assumptions of the study, existing expansion plans, possible obstacles to the expansion of charging infrastructure and the market ramp-up of e-vehicles by 2030. In the Master Plan Charging Infrastructure of the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) it was stated that the cooperation with the automotive industry and the energy industry will be significantly intensified in this study.

RLI assumes the following tasks within this research project:

  • Evaluation of mobility in Germany (MiD 2017) and application of a bottom-up analysis
  • Development of a usage cascade to take use behaviour into account
  • Consideration of the economic efficiency of loading points of different performance classes
  • Development of an update methodology as well as parameterizable calculation basis
  • Creation of extreme scenarios to determine the interactions and effects of the "communicating vessels"
  • Implementation of a total of four stakeholder workshops on the topics of cargo @home, @work and @public
  • Implementation of cleanroom discussions




Oliver Arnhold

Project manager

Alexander Windt