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Study: Nationwide demand for charging infrastructure for e-vehicles until 2030

In the study "Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030 – scenarios for the market ramp-up", the nationwide demand for charging infrastructure, distributed over different performance classes, is determined. For this purpose, seven typical charging situations are identified (charge use cases), which cover both private charging at home and at work as well as charging in publicly accessible areas. For the first time, a “delay factor” is determined which makes it possible to take into account the stagnant development of private charging infrastructure when planning public charging points.

New approach for the calculation of the charging demand

In order to forecast the demand for charging points for e-vehicles, a top-down approach is currently usually followed. This means that for each e-vehicle, there must also be a predefined number of charging points – but this number varies depending on the source. In this study, a bottom-up approach is used as an alternative. Instead of the number of vehicles, this approach determines the number of actual charging operations required in Germany and calculates the required charging points on this basis.

forecast for the construction of private chargepoints must be changed

Basically, the following applies: Energy which is used at one charge use case does not have to be used at another charge use case. For example, vehicles that have been fully charged at home overnight do not have to be included in the demand planning for the day in the city centre – even if there are many e-vehicles on the road in the city during the day. If there are many private charging options available, the pressure to set up charging points in public spaces decreases. The prediction of how many private charging points will be available and when, must therefore be as precise as possible. In order to determine the availability of private charging infrastructure up to the year 2030, this study determines for the first time a "delay factor" which takes into account current hurdles in the development of private charging infrastructure as well as delayed development and makes the calculation more precise.

involvement of all those involved

To ensure that all relevant developments are taken into account in the study, a regular exchange with stakeholders is a fixed component. Multi-stakeholder dialogs will be held from the end of January to the end of February to provide information on user preferences, the assumptions of the study, existing expansion plans, possible obstacles to the expansion of charging infrastructure, and the market ramp-up of e-vehicles by 2030. In the ”Masterplan for Charging Infrastructure” of the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI), it was stated that the cooperation with the automotive industry as well as the energy industry will be significantly deepened in this study.

Project duration: August 2019 to summer 2020

Consulting and implementation:

  • Change of the methodology from the top-down approach to the bottom-up approach
  • Evaluation of the BMVI study Mobility in Germany (MiD 2017) and application of a bottom-up analysis
  • Development of a ranking for the attractiveness of charge use cases depending on the household type (cascade of use)
  • Consideration of the utilization of charging points of different performance classes
  • Development of an update methodology and a parameterizable calculation basis
  • Creation of extreme scenarios to determine interactions and effects of the “communicating tubes”
  • Implementation of stakeholder workshops on the topics of charging @home, @work, and @public
  • In-depth discussions with the automotive and energy industries
NOW GmbH

BMVI

NOW GmbH

Contact



Oliver Arnhold


Project manager

Alexander Windt


Researcher