Charging requirements reassessed up to 2030: Study on publicly accessible charging points and charging capacity sets guidelines for expansion

June 5, 2024 | The study ‘Charging infrastructure after 2025/2030: Scenarios for the market ramp-up’ by the National Centre for Charging Infrastructure (Leitstelle) is being published today in an updated new edition. Its results are not only an important decision-making basis for private-sector activities, but also play an important role in the expansion of the electricity grid, the creation of local master plans in districts and municipalities and the federal government’s regional expansion monitoring for the whole of Germany. The results can also be used in the preparation of funding guidelines.

Together with the Leitstelle, the Reiner Lemoine Institute (RLI) has further developed the model for the new 2024 edition and carried out the calculations. An important basis for the study is the ‘Manufacturer survey on market development and technology trends for electric cars’ published by NOW GmbH in April.

In addition to the reference scenario, the study considers four other scenarios that are characterised by different assumptions (low availability of non-publicly accessible charging infrastructure, high availability of non-publicly accessible charging infrastructure, digital optimisation and HPC focus).

Key results:

• Depending on the scenario, the study determines an installed charging capacity of 23.3 to 32.4 GW.
• This corresponds to a demand of 380,000 to 680,000 publicly accessible charging points, of which 55,000 to 90,000 are HPC charging points with a charging capacity of over 150 kW. The reference scenario, which combines the basic assumptions, results in a demand of 520,000 charging points, 68,000 of which are HPC charging points.
• The total amount of electrical energy charged in electric cars amounts to 37.8 TWh – with publicly accessible charging infrastructure providing between 36 and 50 per cent of this energy, depending on the scenario.
• The number of non-publicly accessible charging points at home and in companies has a major influence on the necessary publicly accessible charging infrastructure.
• The HPC scenario, which focuses on HPC charging infrastructure, reduces the total number of publicly accessible charging points required as the number of HPC charging points increases, while the installed charging capacity remains constant compared to the reference scenario.

The charging infrastructure requirements determined in this study are necessary in order to fulfil the German government’s high market ramp-up ambitions. Regardless of when the number of electric cars is reached, the corresponding minimum demand for charging infrastructure remains unchanged.

Kurt-Christoph von Knobelsdorff, Managing Director and Spokesman of NOW GmbH:
‘The updated study provides a unique data-based planning foundation for charging infrastructure in Germany – significant for all stakeholders and the vehicle and energy sector as a whole. The ambitious target of 15 million e-cars by 2030 continues to point the way for the expansion strategy and the successful market ramp-up of electric mobility. Nevertheless, the dynamic developments in both charging technologies and the vehicle market are significantly changing the requirements for the overall system of publicly accessible charging infrastructure. In the future, charging capacity will play an increasingly important role in planning.’

SimBEV as a digital tool for planning charging infrastructure

RLI scientists have calculated all the requirements for public charging infrastructure in Germany and the associated energy volumes up to the year 2035 in various scenarios. The project team has further developed the SimBEV software for this purpose. Users can use it to determine charging requirements for electric cars in regions and differentiate between vehicle types, user groups and region types, for example. The results are driving and charging profiles for all vehicles in the region as well as load time series for different charging variants, such as at home, at work or at the supermarket. The entire programme code is written in the Python programming language and is freely available on the github online service under the MIT open source licence. The digital tool helps stakeholders such as local authorities, companies and housing associations to plan charging infrastructure.

Here you can download the complete study (only in German).

Click here for the SimBEV software on github.

Click here for the project page.