Accelerating towards Sustainable Mobility: Modelling and Analysis of the Sustainable Mobility Transition in Mauritius
Project duration: February 2017 - February 2020This PhD research project is primarily concerned with identifying the most optimal transformative pathways regarding future transport systems on small island states, with Mauritius as an example of a rapidly urbanizing Small Island Developing State (SIDS).
SIDS have extremely ambitious goals towards a sustainable future in light of their acute vulnerability to the effects of climate change. In order to achieve these goals, the transport sector cannot continue to develop under a business-as-usual scenario. Globally, the transport industry contributes almost one-quarter (23 percent) of the current global energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is growing faster than any other energy end-use sector. GHG emissions from transport are anticipated to rise from today’s levels by nearly 20 percent by 2030 and close to 50 percent by year 2050. It is therefore the sector with the highest potential for reducing GHG emissions.
SIDS, with their remoteness and insularity, face specific daunting challenges in transportation. Mauritius has proven to be an interesting case from this perspective, exhibiting many of the transport problems that other countries with land constraints face as well, such as worsening congestion, air pollution, and traffic accidents. The primary goal of this research is to explore and present transformation pathways considering present and future economic, environmental, and technical parameters.
With special considerations to the specific constraints regarding SIDS, the project aims at simulating and modelling different pathways towards decarbonization. In the final phase, we will propose solutions and initiatives to policy makers and other interested stakeholders based on thorough considerations of the scenario building and the environmental and socio-economic relevance.
© Photo: Simisa contribs, Mauritius 23.08.2009 09-19-10, cropped by RLI, CC BY-SA 3.0
Component 1: Mapping the Status Quo
- Data collection in order to analyze barriers to a sustainable transformation. This includes GIS data, Road networks, GHG emissions, air pollution, policy planning, budgets, and energy data.
- Literature review on theories of transition with special regard to islands
Component 2: Modelling and simulation
- Determine future trends and key uncertainties, examine effects on sustainability issues
- Modelling different scenarios and their environmental and economic impact
Component 3 Transformation Theories Evaluation and Future Policy Planning
- Assessment of the different future scenarios
- Development of recommendations for future policies