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24. Februar 2022Impacts of power sector model features on optimal capacity expansion: A comparative study (van Ouwerkerk et al. 2022)

Jonas van Ouwerkerk, Hans Christian Gils, Hedda Gardian, Martin Kittel, Wolf-Peter Schill, Alexander Zerrahn, Alexander Murmann, Jann Launer, Laura Torralba-Díaz und Christian Bußar
Diese Publikation ist im Rahmen des FlexMex-Projekts entstanden.
Abstract — The transition towards decarbonized energy systems requires the expansion of renewable and flexibility technologies in power sectors. Many powerful tools exist to find optimal capacity expansion. In a stylized comparison
of six models, we evaluate the capacity expansion results of basic power sector technologies. The technologies
under investigation include base- and peak load power plants, electricity storage, and transmission. We define
four highly simplified and harmonized test cases that focus on the expansion of only one or two specific technologies to isolate their effects on model results. We find that deviating assumptions on limited availability
factors of technologies cause technology-specific deviations between optimal capacity expansion in models in
almost all test cases. Fixed energy-to-power ratios of storage can entirely change optimal expansion outcomes,
especially shifting the ratio between short- and long-duration storage. Fixed initial and final-period storage levels
can affect the seasonal use of long-duration storage. Models with a pre-ordered dispatch structure substantially
deviate from linear optimization models, as missing foresight and limited flexibility can lead to higher capacity
investments. A simplified net transfer capacity approach underestimates the need for grid infrastructure
compared to a more detailed direct current load flow approach. We further find deviations in model results of
optimal storage and transmission capacity expansion between regions, and link them to variable renewable
energy generation and demand characteristics. We expect that the general effects identified in our stylized setting
also hold in more detailed model applications, although they may be less visible there.
Erschienen in: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 157 (2022) 112004.
Erschienen in: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 157 (2022) 112004.